Pacific climate intelligence

Monitor ENSO signals and explain the chance of El Nino development.

Track Nino 3.4 anomalies, ONI history, risk levels, dynamic Pacific flow patterns, and a transparent experimental outlook in one multilingual dashboard.

View live dashboard How prediction works

Dashboard

Current state

Key ocean and atmosphere signals used to monitor ENSO conditions.

Current phase Loading Awaiting data
Latest Nino 3.4 -- Weekly SST anomaly
Latest ONI -- 3-month running mean
El Nino probability -- Next season window

ONI trend

Oceanic Nino Index values, with +/-0.5 C thresholds.

Stored data

Signal checklist

    Forecast

    Prediction outlook

    Compare a local transparent model with official forecast links. The local model is a decision-support aid, not an official forecast.

    Phase probabilities

    Seasonal probability split for El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.

    6 seasons

    Nino 3.4 outlook

    Projected anomaly path from persistence, trend, and seasonal weights.

    Experimental

    Model note

    Transparent prediction logic

    This portal estimates short-range ENSO risk from the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly, recent ONI trend, persistence, and a seasonal adjustment that gives more weight to boreal autumn and winter. It should be used alongside NOAA CPC and IRI guidance.

    Season codes

    What DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON mean

    ENSO forecasts and ONI tables use rolling 3-month seasons. Each code is made from the first letter of each month in that 3-month period.

    DJFDecember-January-February
    MAMMarch-April-May
    JJAJune-July-August
    SONSeptember-October-November

    Other codes follow the same pattern: JFM means January-February-March, FMA means February-March-April, and NDJ means November-December-January.

    Dynamic map

    El Nino flow across the Pacific

    Animated Pacific map showing how weakened trade winds, warm surface water, and convection shift across real-world ENSO monitoring regions.

    Animated ocean-atmosphere flow

    A realistic Pacific basemap with animated heat, currents, wind arrows, and ENSO monitoring boxes.

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    Western Pacific warm pool
    East Pacific warming
    Equator
    Malaysia / Maritime Southeast Asia
    Dynamic visualization; use official forecasts for operational decisions.

    What the animation means

    1. Trade winds weakenNormal easterly trades weaken, reducing the westward push on surface water.
    2. Warm water shifts eastWarm surface water spreads toward the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
    3. Rainfall zones moveTropical cloud and rainfall patterns can shift, changing regional heat, rain, and drought risk.
    4. Stronger anomaly = faster flowThe animation speeds up when the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly is warmer.

    Indicators

    ENSO monitoring regions

    The Nino 3.4 region is the main reference area for many ENSO monitoring products.

    Nino monitoring regions map Pacific region map highlighting Nino monitoring boxes. Equator Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 4 1+2 Monitoring boxes are shown for regional reference.

    Latest values

    IndicatorValueInterpretation

    Impacts

    Risk notes

    Regional impacts vary. Use these cards as planning prompts rather than deterministic warnings.

    Sources

    Official data sources

    Reference links used for ONI history, ENSO status discussion, and probabilistic outlooks.

    Reading notes

    1. ONI is a 3-month running mean of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region.
    2. Positive anomalies indicate warmer-than-average equatorial Pacific water.
    3. Probabilities compare El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina outcomes by season window.
    4. Season codes such as DJF and MAM are overlapping 3-month climate periods.